If recruitment feels harder than it should right now, you’re not imagining it.
Over the past few weeks, we’ve had the same conversation across sectors – education, healthcare, engineering, professional services, tech, logistics, you name it!
“Why does recruitment feel tougher?”
The latest Office for National Statistics and Indeed Hiring Lab data gives us a clearer picture.
The UK labour market isn’t crashing. But it is adjusting. And adjustment cycles are often the hardest to navigate.
Unemployment Is Rising – But That Doesn’t Mean Hiring Is Easy
The latest ONS figures show:
- Unemployment at 5.2% (a five-year high)
- Around 1.88 million people currently unemployed
- Vacancies sitting at approximately 725,000
Vacancy numbers have now declined for 18 consecutive months and are roughly 28% below their 2022 peak.
This signals caution, not crisis.
More people are looking for work.
But fewer new roles are being created.
This creates pressure across recruitment functions.
We’re in a “Low-Hiring, Low-Firing” Environment
Redundancy notifications remain modest.
Layoffs aren’t spiking.
But hiring appetite is subdued.
Economists describe this as a low-hiring, low-firing environment.
Candidates are hesitant to move.
Employers are hesitant to expand.
The result? Stagnation.
And stagnation often feels worse than volatility.
Wage Growth Is Cooling – and Budgets Feel It
Posted wage growth has slowed materially.
Private sector wage growth is now around 3.4%, down from previous highs.
This shift has implications:
- Reduced pressure to increase salaries aggressively
- Increased focus on cost control
- Greater scrutiny of hiring ROI
For recruitment teams, this often translates into:
- Tighter campaign budgets
- Longer approval cycles
- Greater scrutiny of cost per hire
The Real Issue: Capability Gaps, Not Just Headcount
While unemployment is rising, the UK continues to face structural skills shortages.
Tech and digital hiring intent remains resilient.
Construction continues to struggle.
Lower-paid sectors have softened more sharply.
We are not simply short of people.
We are short of specific capabilities.
This explains why many employers report:
“We’re getting applications, but not the right ones.”
This is a matching challenge, not just a volume challenge.
So What Does This Mean for Recruitment Strategy?
We are in an adjustment cycle.
Not a boom.
Not a crash.
An adjustment.
Adjustment cycles require:
- Smarter targeting
- Clearer job advertising
- Disciplined media buying
- Better use of passive sourcing
- Reporting aligned to hires, not clicks
Reducing spend without improving strategy rarely solves the underlying issue.
Tough markets reward clarity.
And this is precisely when recruitment advertising strategy matters most.
